Feature · August 2026
Overbids
& Underbids
Where San Francisco list prices actually ended
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In San Francisco the list price is a starting line, not a finish line. Here is what homes actually closed at in July, so you can calibrate an offer. Single family and condo play very different games, so read your own lane first.
| Property type | Median Sale vs List | Over asking | Median Days on Market | All-cash share | Median sale price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Family154 closes | 125% | 86% | 12 | 26% | $2,070,000 |
| Condo / Townhouse197 closes | 101% | 59% | 17 | 32% | $1,283,533 |
Buying a house: plan for roughly 125 percent of list, about 26 percent of winning offers all cash, and homes moving in 12 days, so be pre-approved and ready before you tour. Buying a condo: you have more room. Most close near asking, they sit about 17 days, and patience is rewarded.
Bands here are set by sold price. A single family home listed at $1,049,000 and bid to $1,835,000 lands in the $1.5M to $2M band, not the entry band, which is part of why the middle looks hottest. Splitting by property type shows the real driver, and where a buyer has room.
| Single Family | Condo / Townhouse | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price band | Sale vs. List | Over asking | Sale vs. List | Over asking |
| Under $1.5M | 122%42 closes | 79% | 100%122 closes | 55% |
| $1.5M to $2M | 134%31 closes | 94% | 104%36 closes | 67% |
| $2M to $2.5M | 135%23 closes | 83% | 107%21 closes | 81% |
| $2.5M to $3M | 132%21 closes | 90% | 102%8 closes* | 50% |
| $3M+ | 124%37 closes | 89% | 103%10 closes | 50% |
Takeaway: Single family homes cleared above asking in every band, from 122 percent at entry to 135 percent in the $2M to $2.5M range. The under $1.5M band looks calm only because it is three quarters Condo and Townhouse, which sell right at asking; the single family homes in that same band still ran 122 percent with 79 percent over ask. For a buyer, the softest competition sits in condos and in the higher bands, where all-cash share also climbs (36 percent above $2.5M).
Every dot is one July closing, placed by how far over or under asking it sold. Half closed at or above 110 percent, and 42 sold beyond 140 percent, usually where a low list drew a crowd. The left tail is where homes sat, cut, and closed under asking, which is where a patient buyer finds room.
Hover a highlighted dot for the quick read, click it for full detail. The right end of the axis is where a low list met an aggressive bidding war. All residential combined: median 110.0% of list, 71% over asking, 13 Days on Market.
The widest overbid and the widest underbid of the month. For a buyer, the pair is the lesson: a low list can mean a bidding war, and a home that lingers can mean leverage.
The month's widest gap under asking: a $1,095,000 list that closed at $830,000, roughly 24 percent under. When a home trades this far under, the distance is usually set by the original list price and how long it sat (interpretation).
And the largest premium the other way: a $1,498,000 list that closed at $2,755,000 in 14 days. A gap this wide usually means the list was set well below likely value to draw a crowd (interpretation).
The six largest overbids and the six deepest underbids of the month, with the numbers behind each. Click any address for the full detail: beds and baths, square footage, price per square foot, financing, and how it compares to the citywide and district medians.
| Address | Neighborhood | Beds / Baths | Sale vs. List | Sold | Days on Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overbids | |||||
| 3222 Harrison St | Bernal Heights | 2 bd / 2 ba | 183.9% | $2,755,000 | 14 |
| 2441 45th Ave | Outer Parkside | 2 bd / 1 ba | 179.4% | $1,965,000 | 8 |
| 4256 23rd St | Noe Valley | 4 bd / 4 ba | 177.5% | $3,815,805 | 5 |
| 2270 27th Ave | Parkside | 4 bd / 2.5 ba | 176.3% | $2,160,000 | 6 |
| 1985 8th Ave | Forest Hill | 2 bd / 2 ba | 175.6% | $2,625,000 | 7 |
| 259 Staples Ave | Sunnyside | 2 bd / 2 ba | 174.9% | $1,835,000 | 13 |
| Underbids | |||||
| 841 Ocean Ave | Ingleside | 2 bd / 1 ba | 75.8% | $830,000 | 14 |
| 765 Market St #PH2G | South of Market | 2 bd / 2.5 ba | 76.4% | $2,100,000 | 25 |
| 1578 Indiana St #1 | Central Waterfront / Dogpatch | 2 bd / 2 ba | 83.4% | $750,000 | 0 |
| 566 Athens St | Excelsior | 2 bd / 1 ba | 86.9% | $430,000 | 23 |
| 519 Hickory St | Hayes Valley | 3 bd / 3 ba | 87.6% | $2,800,000 | 0 |
| 3236 San Jose Ave | Unspecified | 6 bd / 3 ba | 89.6% | $1,030,000 | 28 |
This is the citywide picture. Your block, your floor, your timing tell a different story. A 15-minute conversation usually surfaces what a static report cannot.
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