Feature · September 2026
Overbids
& Underbids
Where San Francisco list prices actually ended
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In San Francisco the list price is a starting line, not a finish line. Here is what homes actually closed at in August, so you can calibrate an offer. Single family and condo play very different games, so read your own lane first.
| Property type | Median Sale vs List | Over asking | Median Days on Market | All-cash share | Median sale price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Family143 closes | 119% | 88% | 13 | 28% | $1,850,000 |
| Condo / Townhouse175 closes | 101% | 52% | 14 | 36% | $1,255,000 |
Buying a house: plan for roughly 119 percent of list, about 28 percent of winning offers all cash, and homes moving in 13 days, so be pre-approved and ready before you tour. Buying a condo: you have more room. Most close near asking, they sit about 14 days, and patience is rewarded.
Bands here are set by sold price. A single family home listed at $899,000 and bid to $1,550,000 lands in the $1.5M to $2M band, not the entry band, which is part of why the middle looks hottest. Splitting by property type shows the real driver, and where a buyer has room.
| Single Family | Condo / Townhouse | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price band | Sale vs. List | Over asking | Sale vs. List | Over asking |
| Under $1.5M | 111%47 closes | 81% | 100%106 closes | 44% |
| $1.5M to $2M | 119%32 closes | 94% | 109%38 closes | 74% |
| $2M to $2.5M | 127%31 closes | 94% | 111%7 closes* | 71% |
| $2.5M to $3M | 118%9 closes* | 100% | 117%7 closes* | 57% |
| $3M+ | 122%24 closes | 83% | 100%17 closes | 41% |
Takeaway: Single family homes cleared above asking in every band, from 111 percent at entry to 127 percent in the $2M to $2.5M range. The under $1.5M band looks calm only because it is roughly two thirds Condo and Townhouse, which sell right at asking; the single family homes in that same band still ran 111 percent with 81 percent over ask. For a buyer, the softest competition sits in condos and in the higher bands, where all-cash share also climbs (46 percent above $2.5M).
Every dot is one August closing, placed by how far over or under asking it sold. Half closed at or above 106 percent, and 37 sold beyond 140 percent, usually where a low list drew a crowd. The left tail is where homes sat, cut, and closed under asking, which is where a patient buyer finds room.
Hover a highlighted dot for the quick read, click it for full detail. The right end of the axis is where a low list met an aggressive bidding war. All residential combined: median 106.0% of list, 68% over asking, 13 Days on Market.
The widest overbid and the widest underbid of the month. For a buyer, the pair is the lesson: a low list can mean a bidding war, and a home that lingers can mean leverage.
The month's widest gap under asking: a $1,100,000 list that closed at $750,000, roughly 32 percent under. Lender-owned sale of a foundation-only site with approved plans for a 4,845 square foot home. The 68% figure reads the land and entitlements, not a finished house.
And the largest premium the other way: a $1,195,000 list that closed at $2,250,000 in 5 days. A gap this wide usually means the list was set well below likely value to draw a crowd (interpretation).
The six largest overbids and the six deepest underbids of the month, with the numbers behind each. Click any address for the full detail: beds and baths, square footage, price per square foot, financing, and how it compares to the citywide and district medians.
| Address | Neighborhood | Beds / Baths | Sale vs. List | Sold | Days on Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overbids | |||||
| 2269 Bryant St | Inner Mission | 3 bd / 2 ba | 188.3% | $2,250,000 | 5 |
| 201 Gennessee St | Sunnyside | 2 bd / 1 ba | 181.4% | $1,810,000 | 17 |
| 1478 21st Ave | Central Sunset | 3 bd / 1 ba | 177.0% | $2,115,000 | 4 |
| 2471 40th Ave | Outer Parkside | 4 bd / 2 ba | 173.8% | $1,908,000 | 13 |
| 1687 22nd Ave | Central Sunset | 3 bd / 3 ba | 173.8% | $2,250,000 | 0 |
| 31 Middlefield Dr | Lake Shore | 2 bd / 1 ba | 172.4% | $1,550,000 | 13 |
| Underbids | |||||
| 400 Franconia St | Bernal Heights | 5 bd / 4.5 ba | 68.2% | $750,000 | 89 |
| 859 24th Ave | Central Richmond | 3 bd / 2.5 ba | 77.2% | $1,000,000 | 56 |
| 411 Vienna St | Excelsior | 2 bd / 1 ba | 81.8% | $900,000 | 73 |
| 45 Ora Way #A303 | Diamond Heights | 1 bd / 1 ba | 82.6% | $280,000 | 57 |
| 28 Prescott Ct | Telegraph Hill | 3 bd / 2.5 ba | 83.0% | $2,402,000 | 84 |
| 89 Keystone Way | Mount Davidson Manor | 3 bd / 2.5 ba | 84.3% | $1,500,000 | 6 |
This is the citywide picture. Your micro-neighborhood, your floor, your timing tell a different story. A 15-minute conversation usually surfaces what a static report cannot.
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