Feature · October 2026
Overbids
& Underbids
Where San Francisco list prices actually ended
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In San Francisco the list price is a starting line, not a finish line. Here is what homes actually closed at in September, so you can calibrate an offer. Single family and condo play very different games, so read your own lane first.
| Property type | Median Sale vs List | Over asking | Median Days on Market | All-cash share | Median sale price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Family189 closes | 129% | 92% | 12 | 29% | $2,050,000 |
| Condo / Townhouse204 closes | 106% | 69% | 13 | 34% | $1,337,500 |
Buying a house: plan for roughly 129 percent of list, about 29 percent of winning offers all cash, and homes moving in 12 days, so be pre-approved and ready before you tour. Buying a condo: you have more room. Most close near asking, they sit about 13 days, and patience is rewarded.
Bands here are set by sold price. A single family home listed at $788,000 and bid to $1,400,000 lands in the Under $1.5M band, not the entry band, which is part of why the middle looks hottest. Splitting by property type shows the real driver, and where a buyer has room.
| Single Family | Condo / Townhouse | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price band | Sale vs. List | Over asking | Sale vs. List | Over asking |
| Under $1.5M | 115%42 closes | 86% | 103%119 closes | 63% |
| $1.5M to $2M | 135%46 closes | 93% | 109%43 closes | 74% |
| $2M to $2.5M | 131%30 closes | 97% | 127%15 closes | 87% |
| $2.5M to $3M | 141%17 closes | 94% | 109%11 closes | 64% |
| $3M+ | 127%54 closes | 91% | 117%16 closes | 81% |
Takeaway: Single family homes cleared above asking in every band, from 115 percent at entry to 141 percent in the $2.5M to $3M range. The under $1.5M band looks calm only because it is three quarters Condo and Townhouse, which sell right at asking; the single family homes in that same band still ran 115 percent with 86 percent over ask. For a buyer, the softest competition sits in condos and in the higher bands, where all-cash share also climbs (54 percent above $2.5M).
Every dot is one September closing, placed by how far over or under asking it sold. Half closed at or above 116 percent, and 74 sold beyond 140 percent, usually where a low list drew a crowd. The left tail is where homes sat, cut, and closed under asking, which is where a patient buyer finds room.
Hover a highlighted dot for the quick read, click it for full detail. The right end of the axis is where a low list met an aggressive bidding war. All residential combined: median 115.7% of list, 80% over asking, 12 Days on Market.
The widest overbid and the widest underbid of the month. For a buyer, the pair is the lesson: a low list can mean a bidding war, and a home that lingers can mean leverage.
The month's widest gap under asking: a $2,995,000 list that closed at $2,625,000, roughly 12 percent under. When a home trades this far under, the distance is usually set by the original list price and how long it sat (interpretation).
And the largest premium the other way: a $1,268,000 list that closed at $2,500,000 in 0 days. A gap this wide usually means the list was set well below likely value to draw a crowd (interpretation).
The six largest overbids and the six deepest underbids of the month, with the numbers behind each. Click any address for the full detail: beds and baths, square footage, price per square foot, financing, and how it compares to the citywide and district medians.
| Address | Neighborhood | Beds / Baths | Sale vs. List | Sold | Days on Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overbids | |||||
| 259 17th Ave | Central Richmond | 3 bd / 1 ba | 197.2% | $2,500,000 | 0 |
| 415 Fillmore St | Hayes Valley | 4 bd / 2.5 ba | 196.8% | $6,100,000 | 6 |
| 1301 Ulloa St | West Portal | 3 bd / 1 ba | 190.2% | $1,900,000 | 1 |
| 195 Jersey St | Noe Valley | 2 bd / 1 ba | 179.9% | $1,790,000 | 7 |
| 729 4th Ave | Inner Richmond | 3 bd / 2.5 ba | 179.7% | $3,225,000 | 10 |
| 1430 Shafter Ave | Bayview | 4 bd / 2 ba | 177.7% | $1,400,000 | 33 |
| Underbids | |||||
| 188 Minna St #34D | Yerba Buena | 2 bd / 2.5 ba | 87.7% | $2,625,000 | 224 |
| 371 6th Ave | Inner Richmond | 3 bd / 3 ba | 88.1% | $2,000,000 | 321 |
| 25 Farallones St | Oceanview | 3 bd / 2 ba | 90.7% | $721,000 | 28 |
| 1 Steuart Ln #903 | South Beach | 2 bd / 2 ba | 90.8% | $2,900,000 | 12 |
| 1818 California St | Pacific Heights | 6 bd / 6.5 ba | 90.8% | $7,718,750 | 131 |
| 143 Prospect Ave | Bernal Heights | 1 bd / 1 ba | 91.2% | $600,000 | 52 |
This is the citywide picture. Your micro-neighborhood, your floor, your timing tell a different story. A 15-minute conversation usually surfaces what a static report cannot.
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