Feature · July 2026
Overbids
& Underbids
Where San Francisco list prices actually ended
⌄
In San Francisco the list price is a starting line, not a finish line. Here is what homes actually closed at in June, so you can calibrate an offer. Single family and condo play very different games, so read your own lane first.
| Property type | Median Sale vs List | Over asking | Median Days on Market | All-cash share | Median sale price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Family244 closes | 124.3% | 88% | 12 | 26% | $2,110,000 |
| Condo / Townhouse250 closes | 101.2% | 55% | 19 | 31% | $1,205,500 |
Buying a house: plan for roughly 124.3 percent of list, about one in four winning offers all cash, and homes moving in 12 days, so be pre-approved and ready before you tour. Buying a condo: you have more room. Most close near asking, they sit about 19 days, and patience is rewarded.
Bands here are set by sold price. A single family home listed at $999,000 and bid to $1.76M lands in the $1.5M to $2M band, not the entry band, which is part of why the middle looks hottest. Splitting by property type shows the real driver, and where a buyer has room.
| Single Family | Condo / Townhouse | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price band | Sale vs. List | Over asking | Sale vs. List | Over asking |
| Under $1.5M | 111%50 closes | 78% | 100%162 closes | 46% |
| $1.5M to $2M | 130%65 closes | 95% | 107%46 closes | 74% |
| $2M to $2.5M | 140%33 closes | 100% | 116%11 closes | 91% |
| $2.5M to $3M | 128%28 closes | 86% | 125%16 closes | 69% |
| $3M+ | 122%68 closes | 82% | 116%15 closes | 60% |
Takeaway: Single family homes cleared over 110 percent of list in every band, from 111 percent at entry to 140 percent in the $2M to $2.5M range. The under $1.5M band looks calm only because it is three quarters Condo and Townhouse, which sell right at asking; the single family homes in that same band still ran 111 percent with 78 percent over ask. For a buyer, the softest competition sits in condos and in the higher bands, where all-cash share also climbs (40 percent above $2.5M).
Every dot is one June closing, placed by how far over or under asking it sold. Half closed at or above 110 percent, and 75 sold beyond 140 percent, usually where a low list drew a crowd. The left tail is where homes sat, cut, and closed under asking, which is where a patient buyer finds room.
Hover a highlighted dot for the quick read, click it for full detail. The right end of the axis is where a low list met an aggressive bidding war. All residential combined: median 110.6% of list, 71% over asking, 14 Days on Market.
The widest overbid and the widest underbid of the month. For a buyer, the pair is the lesson: a low list can mean a bidding war, and a home that lingers can mean leverage.
The month's widest gap under asking: a $1,695,000 list that closed at $1,300,000, roughly 23 percent under. When a home trades this far under, the distance is usually set by the original list price and how long it sat (interpretation).
And the largest premium the other way: a $2,895,000 list that closed at $5,500,000 in 9 days. A gap this wide usually means the list was set well below likely value to draw a crowd (interpretation).
The six largest overbids and the six deepest underbids of the month, with the numbers behind each. Select any row for full detail.
| Address | Neighborhood | Beds / Baths | Sale vs. List | Sold | Days on Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overbids | |||||
| 58 Woodland Ave | Cole Valley/Parnassu | 3 bd / 2 ba | 190.0% | $5,500,000 | 9 |
| 163 Day St | Noe Valley | 2 bd / 1 ba | 177.1% | $2,470,000 | 6 |
| 2521 QUINTARA St | Parkside | 2 bd / 2 ba | 176.2% | $1,760,600 | 10 |
| 1663 23rd Ave | Central Sunset | 2 bd / 1 ba | 176.2% | $2,105,000 | 14 |
| 2454 24th Ave | Parkside | 2 bd / 1 ba | 175.9% | $1,750,000 | 12 |
| 149 Anderson St | Bernal Heights | 3 bd / 2 ba | 174.4% | $1,910,000 | 12 |
| Underbids | |||||
| 21 Castenada Ave | Forest Hill | 5 bd / 6 ba | 76.7% | $1,300,000 | 17 |
| 271 Granada Ave | Ingleside | 1 bd / 1 ba | 81.3% | $650,000 | 97 |
| 1164 Fulton St | Alamo Square | 5 bd / 4.5 ba | 83.0% | $9,125,000 | 108 |
| 2972 Pacific Ave | Pacific Heights | 5 bd / 5 ba | 83.0% | $7,885,000 | 26 |
| 300 Los Palmos Dr | Miraloma Park | 3 bd / 2 ba | 83.5% | $1,000,000 | 55 |
| 6 Mint Plz #900A | South of Market | 3 bd / 3.5 ba | 84.6% | $2,750,000 | 0 |
This is the citywide picture. Your block, your floor, your timing tell a different story. A 15-minute conversation usually surfaces what a static report cannot.
Start the conversation